snapshot:
  type: Package
  publisher: worldview.genval.ai
  version: 1.0.13
  imports:
    - publisher: worldview.genval.ai
      packages:
        - package: core
          match: ^
          version: 1.2.0
          alias: wv
        - package: finance
          match: ^
          version: 2.1.0
          alias: fin
        - package: securities
          match: ^
          version: 1.2.0
          alias: sec
        - package: visual
          match: ^
          version: 1.0.0
          alias: vis

view:
  type: wv.WorldviewSnapshot
  label: Macro worldview
  observedAt: 2026-05-15T02:52:19Z
  narrative: >
    Late-Thursday post-close refresh covering the May 14 cash session through
    after-hours - the [[view]] window from the 1.0.12 mid-morning intraday
    cut to the 22:52 ET / 02:52 UTC May 15 wrap. Two theses step up on
    explicitly-named tells; energy and gold trim modestly on the Trump-Xi
    Hormuz alignment; the other three hold. Also a one-time inventory
    migration: this is the first snapshot built against [[fin]]@2.0.0 +
    [[sec]]@1.2.0, so every prior `fin.<ticker>` security reference moved
    to `sec.<ticker>`, and the long-standing unresolved `fin.ndx` was
    promoted to a properly-typed [[sec.ixic]] (Nasdaq Composite, INDEX,
    broad-market). The schema split between [[fin]] (metrics, periods,
    institutions, central banks - retained as-is) and [[sec]] (concrete
    Security instances) is now reflected in the snapshot's import set.

    **Equity.** [[sec.spx]] closed 7,501.24 (+0.77%), the **first close
    above 7,500 in history**, with [[sec.ixic]] (Nasdaq Composite) +0.88%
    to 26,635.22 (record), DJI +0.75% to 50,063.46 (back above 50K), and
    [[sec.spy]] $748.17 (Massive verified, +0.79%) - on a session that
    *also* absorbed an April import-prices print of +1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY
    (highest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m
    (largest since March 2022). [[sec.vix]] fell 0.7% to 17.87, well
    inside the 15-20 mid-zone. AH adds Cisco +15% on a Q3 print that
    raised FY26 AI orders to $9B from $5B - direct AI-spend confirmation
    that lands during the next session. The muscle-through across two
    consecutive hot inflation prints (CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday) plus
    today's hot import-prices print is the named tell:
    [[equity-melt-up-vs-recession-risk]] **steps from 0.71 to 0.74**.

    **AI/China.** The Trump-Xi summit produced the China-policy axis
    [[ai-capex-cycle-with-china-tail]] flagged: Reuters confirmed the
    US Commerce Department cleared **H200 sales to ~10 Chinese firms**
    (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, plus distributors Lenovo and
    Foxconn), capped at 75K chips per company. The deals have stalled -
    no shipments yet, with Beijing pulling firms back - but the *export-
    control framework just resolved on the favorable side*. [[sec.nvda]]
    +4.4% to a fresh ATH $235.74 (Massive verified) priced the
    breakthrough; [[sec.amd]] +0.9% to $449.70. The May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027
    print remains the binary tell, but the China-tail risk is now
    materially walked back. **Steps from 0.85 to 0.88.**

    **Iran/energy.** Trump and Xi *jointly stated* that the Strait of
    Hormuz "must remain open" and that Iran "can never have nuclear
    weapon"; Xi offered to broker peace with Iran, told Trump China
    "won't give military equipment" to Tehran, and expressed interest
    in buying more American oil to reduce dependence on the Strait;
    Treasury Secretary Bessent said China will work behind the scenes
    to help reopen the Strait. Chinese state media did not include the
    Hormuz line in its readout - so the diplomatic alignment is
    asymmetric and load-bearing only at the rhetorical level. Crude
    settled essentially flat - WTI June $101.17 (+9c), Brent July
    $105.72 (+9c) - markets did NOT price a near-term break. Iran has
    not responded; the May 10 sovereignty demand and the US naval
    blockade remain in force; oil-loss running >14M bpd cumulative >1B
    barrels. The diplomatic-pathway pivot (China as new mediator) is a
    real but small step toward the SequencedCondition's first leg, so
    [[persistent-energy-shock]] **trims from 0.65 to 0.62**. Defense
    primes were a rotation away on the day: [[sec.lmt]] $520.41
    (essentially flat), [[sec.rtx]] $175.68 (-1.4%), [[sec.noc]] $548.65
    (-0.6%). The procurement cycle does not bend on a one-day rotation;
    [[iran-war-rearmament]] **holds at 0.82**.

    **Gold.** Spot pulled back below $4,700 for a second straight session
    (~$4,621-4,671 ask/bid by 7:55 PM ET) on the rate-up backdrop and
    the diplomatic-positive Trump-Xi readout; [[sec.gld]] $427.21
    (Massive verified, -0.8%), [[sec.gdx]] $93.95 (-2.4%) reflecting the
    leverage on a down day. The structural-bull supports
    (Q1 244t central-bank buying, $4,873 LBMA average, JPM/UBS/Citi
    targets at $5K-$7K, Fed-credibility pressure) are unaffected by a
    two-day move; but a partial step toward the durable-peace gate of
    the AndCondition justifies a small trim. [[gold-debasement-bid]]
    **trims from 0.87 to 0.86**.

    **Rates and stagflation.** April import prices +1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY
    (largest since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m extends
    the inflation-print sequence (CPI 3.8%, PPI +6.0% YoY, now imports
    +4.2% YoY). The **CME FedWatch hike-by-December probability is
    36%**, up from ~16% a week ago - the rate-path repricing is
    confirmed by a third independent measurement. The 10Y eased 2bp to
    4.461% on the day, mildly counter; [[sec.tlt]] $84.92 (Massive
    verified, +0.14%) ticked up correspondingly. April retail sales
    +0.5% m/m printed solidly (third consecutive monthly increase, core
    +0.7%), so the consumer is *absorbing* the energy passthrough
    rather than breaking. The joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5%
    for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) remains data this backdrop
    works against; [[stagflation-risk]] **holds at 0.79** because PCE -
    not CPI / PPI / imports / rate-path repricing - is the formal
    invalidation indicator and the April PCE release is still ahead.

    **Fed transition.** Powell's chair term ends tomorrow. No public
    Warsh-as-chair statement has landed; the substantive policy-content
    question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC.
    [[powell-warsh-transition-risk]] **holds at 0.50**.

    **Israel-Lebanon.** The third round of direct talks opened in
    Washington May 14 and the US characterized Day 1 as "productive" -
    but large gaps remain (Israel demanding Hezbollah disarmament +
    normalization; Lebanon seeking armistice short of normalization;
    Lebanese PM Salam framed Lebanon's principles as ceasefire +
    Israeli withdrawal timetable + detainee release). Continues May 15.

    **Calendar from here.** Powell exits chair Friday May 15;
    Trump-Xi summit concludes May 15 (any AI / Hormuz / Iran follow-on
    statements); Israel-Lebanon talks Day 2 May 15;
    [[ev-nvda-q1-fy27-78b-guide-may20|NVDA Q1 FY2027]] May 20 5 PM ET;
    April PCE later this month (formal stagflation-thesis invalidation
    indicator); June 16-17 FOMC is Warsh's first chair meeting under a
    CPI / PPI / imports backdrop that has already invalidated the
    soft-landing path.
  hasThesis:
    - iran-war-rearmament
    - persistent-energy-shock
    - stagflation-risk
    - gold-debasement-bid
    - ai-capex-cycle-with-china-tail
    - equity-melt-up-vs-recession-risk
    - powell-warsh-transition-risk

iran-war-rearmament:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Iran war rearmament cycle
  thesisStatement: 'The US-Iran war that began Feb 28 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) triggered a multi-year defense spending cycle that benefits prime contractors with missile and missile-defense exposure regardless of diplomatic-track outcomes. Trump and Xi jointly stated on May 14 that Iran "can never have nuclear weapon" and Xi offered to broker peace with Iran (China refusing to provide Iran military equipment), but no Iranian response and no kinetic de-escalation. The procurement / replenishment cycle persists. Depleted munitions stockpiles (438 Iranian ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, 19 cruise missiles fired at UAE through April 1) and Golden Dome ($185B) are committed multi-year programs that survive any near-term deal scenario. Defense primes were on the rotation-away side of a chip-led, AI-led tape on Thursday May 14: LMT $520.41 (essentially flat), RTX $175.68 (-1.4%), NOC $548.65 (-0.6%). One-day rotation does not bend the multi-year procurement cycle.'
  confidence: 0.82
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-defense
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Held at 0.82. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz / no-Iran-nuclear-weapon statement and Xi''s mediation offer are diplomatic-track inputs that do not bear on US procurement, and Iran has not responded. The intraday window carried no fresh US-Iran kinetic event. Defense-prime closes were a rotation-away (LMT flat, RTX -1.4%, NOC -0.6%) on a chip-led record-equity tape, which is daily noise rather than a procurement signal. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither near firing. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments remain structurally robust independent of the diplomatic track.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-operation-epic-fury-feb28
    - ev-iran-tomahawks-fired-2026q1
    - ev-fy2026-defense-budget-1t
    - ev-fy2027-defense-budget-projection
    - ev-lmt-backlog-194b-q1-2026
    - ev-rtx-backlog-271b-q1-2026
    - ev-trump-buyback-eo
    - ev-uae-missile-attack-may8
    - ev-us-navy-iran-fire-exchange-may7
    - ev-us-disabled-iran-tankers-may8
    - ev-us-sank-iran-boats-may7
    - ev-trump-iran-bombed-higher-level-may6
    - ev-iran-response-via-pakistan-may10
    - ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10
    - ev-trump-playing-games-may10
    - ev-trump-bombing-renewal-threat-may10
    - ev-iran-uae-cumulative-attacks-april1
    - ev-trump-massive-life-support-may11
    - ev-trump-knocked-them-out-again-may11
    - ev-iran-never-bow-may11
    - ev-trump-garbage-may12
    - ev-trump-1pct-chance-may12
    - ev-trump-nsc-military-may12
    - ev-iran-heavy-assault-warning-may12
    - ev-lebanon-talks-may14-15-may9
    - ev-lmt-wednesday-close-51994-may13
    - ev-rtx-wednesday-close-17811-may13
    - ev-noc-wednesday-close-55180-may13
    - ev-lebanon-israel-third-round-opens-may14
    - ev-lmt-thursday-close-52041-may14
    - ev-rtx-thursday-close-17568-may14
    - ev-noc-thursday-close-54865-may14
    - ev-trump-xi-iran-no-nukes-may14
    - ev-xi-iran-mediation-offer-may14
    - ev-xi-no-military-eq-iran-may14
    - ev-lebanon-israel-day1-productive-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.AndCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.EventCondition
        event: fin.evt-us-iran-peace-agreement-implemented
        durability: wv.durable
      - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
        observable: fin.ind-dod-outlays-yoy-change
        comparator: wv.lt
        threshold: 0
        persistence:
          wv.duration: 2
          wv.windowUnit: wv.fiscal-quarters

persistent-energy-shock:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Persistent energy premium
  thesisStatement: 'Oil prices remain structurally elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sequence is incomplete and Iranian retaliation risk is intact. WTI June futures settled $101.17 on Thursday May 14 (+9c) and Brent July $105.72 (+9c) - essentially flat consolidation despite a Trump-Xi joint statement that the Strait "must remain open," Xi''s offer to broker peace with Iran, and Bessent''s framing of China as a behind-the-scenes Hormuz mediator. Markets did NOT price a near-term break: oil flat, XLE $58.07 (essentially flat), XOM $152.78 (+0.8%), CVX $186.64. Iran has not responded; the May 10 demand for "full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" remains in force and procedurally incompatible with the durable-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition invalidation; the US naval blockade remains active. Reuters / industry reporting cumulative supply loss now >14 million bpd, >1 billion barrels lost from Gulf producers since the war began. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser previously framed the supply impact as "roughly 100 million barrels of supply each week." May 10 Hormuz transit data: 17 vessels (13 inbound / 4 outbound; 10 AIS-visible, 7 dark / EO-detected only) against pre-war ~120 crossings/day. The diplomatic-pathway pivot - China as a credible new mediator with stated commercial interest in Hormuz reopening - is a real first step toward the SequencedCondition''s first leg, but oil pricing flat says markets weight it as marginal not load-bearing; trim modestly.'
  confidence: 0.62
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-energy
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Trimmed from 0.65 to 0.62. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz "must remain open" statement plus Xi''s mediation offer plus Bessent''s "China to work behind the scenes" framing represent a real but small first step toward the SequencedCondition''s first leg (durable Hormuz reopening) - China''s commercial interest in Hormuz reopening + ability to influence Iran is a new structural lever the prior diplomatic track lacked. Bounded by: oil settled essentially flat ($101 / $105), Iran has not responded, sovereignty demand intact, blockade in force, Chinese state media did not echo the Hormuz line. The trim is the rhetorical shift, not a structural break - the SequencedCondition still requires durable reopening AND 30 days of WTI<$80, neither near firing.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-strait-of-hormuz-closed-march4
    - ev-trump-project-freedom-pause-may6
    - ev-iran-mou-14-point
    - ev-iran-14pt-counter-demands-may2
    - ev-pakistan-mediated-ceasefire
    - ev-wti-95-may8
    - ev-brent-101-may8
    - ev-goldman-brent-target-raise
    - ev-iran-one-page-memo-may8
    - ev-lebanon-most-intense-week-may8
    - ev-qatar-lng-hormuz-transit-may9
    - ev-irgc-safe-transit-commitment-may9
    - ev-vessels-trapped-gulf-may9
    - ev-uae-missile-attack-may8
    - ev-us-navy-iran-fire-exchange-may7
    - ev-us-disabled-iran-tankers-may8
    - ev-april-vessels-191-month
    - ev-trump-iran-bombed-higher-level-may6
    - ev-gas-prices-454-pump-may8
    - ev-iran-48-hour-response-window-may9
    - ev-iran-response-via-pakistan-may10
    - ev-iran-realistic-positive-may10
    - ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10
    - ev-iran-rejects-us-surrender-may10
    - ev-iran-hormuz-sovereignty-demand-may10
    - ev-hormuz-40-ships-week-may3
    - ev-iran-pgsa-application-rules-may
    - ev-april-cpi-consensus-headline-37
    - ev-wti-9807-monday-may11
    - ev-brent-10421-monday-may11
    - ev-hormuz-17-vessels-may10
    - ev-iran-demands-legitimate-may11
    - ev-wti-tuesday-10137-may12
    - ev-brent-tuesday-10758-may12
    - ev-trump-garbage-may12
    - ev-trump-1pct-chance-may12
    - ev-trump-nsc-military-may12
    - ev-iran-heavy-assault-warning-may12
    - ev-aramco-ceo-100m-bbl-may12
    - ev-wti-wednesday-may13
    - ev-brent-wednesday-may13
    - ev-xle-wednesday-close-5763-may13
    - ev-xom-wednesday-close-15157-may13
    - ev-wti-may14
    - ev-brent-may14
    - ev-wti-thursday-settle-10117-may14
    - ev-brent-thursday-settle-10572-may14
    - ev-xle-thursday-close-5807-may14
    - ev-xom-thursday-close-15278-may14
    - ev-cvx-thursday-close-18664-may14
    - ev-trump-xi-hormuz-must-remain-open-may14
    - ev-bessent-china-hormuz-mediation-may14
    - ev-xi-iran-mediation-offer-may14
    - ev-xi-no-military-eq-iran-may14
    - ev-xi-china-buy-us-oil-may14
    - ev-cumulative-supply-loss-1b-bbl-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.OrCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.SequencedCondition
        after:
          type: wv.EventCondition
          event: fin.evt-strait-of-hormuz-reopened
          durability: wv.durable
        then:
          type: wv.ThresholdCondition
          observable: fin.ind-wti-close
          comparator: wv.lt
          threshold: 80
          persistence:
            wv.duration: 30
            wv.windowUnit: wv.calendar-days
      - type: wv.EventCondition
        event: fin.evt-opec-supply-shock

stagflation-risk:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress
  thesisStatement: 'April CPI on Tuesday May 12 fired the energy-passthrough binary tell directly: headline 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), core 2.8% YoY. April PPI Wednesday May 13 ran hotter than CPI - headline +1.4% m/m / +6.0% YoY, core +1.0% m/m / +5.2% YoY (highest in three years). April import prices Thursday May 14 added +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m (largest since March 2022) - a third consecutive hot inflation print and direct confirmation of the Iran-war energy-passthrough story. CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 36% probability of a Fed hike by December (up from ~16% a week earlier), with futures pricing zero 2026 cuts; multiple market commentators question whether Warsh can support any cut under this backdrop. The 10Y eased 2bp to 4.461% on the day, mildly counter, but stays near its mid-2025 high; TLT $84.92 (Massive verified) ticked up correspondingly. April retail sales printed solidly: +0.5% m/m (third consecutive monthly increase), core +0.7% (eleventh straight month positive) - the consumer is absorbing the energy passthrough rather than breaking. Powell exits chair Friday May 15; Warsh confirmed 54-45 Wednesday inherits the hottest inflation backdrop in three years.'
  confidence: 0.79
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-inflation
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Held at 0.79. The Thursday import-prices print (+1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY, fuel +16.3% m/m) is a third consecutive hot inflation reading and adds confirming evidence rather than a step change; CME FedWatch hike-by-December at ~36% (up from ~16% a week earlier) confirms the rate-path repricing across an independent measurement. The 10Y easing 2bp counter to the print is also more confirmation that the backdrop is priced rather than a fresh shock. April retail sales solid +0.5% m/m / +0.7% core sustains the consumer absorbing rather than breaking. Held rather than stepped because core PCE prints - not CPI, PPI, imports, or rate-path repricing - are the formal invalidation indicator, and the April PCE release is still ahead this month.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-fed-held-april29-with-dissent
    - ev-fomc-dissent-miran-cut
    - ev-warsh-banking-cmte-13-11
    - ev-warsh-senate-vote-confirmed-may11
    - ev-powell-exit-warsh-nominated-may15
    - ev-doj-powell-investigation-halted
    - ev-fomc-statement-inflation-elevated-energy
    - ev-market-prices-zero-2026-cuts
    - ev-unemployment-mid-4pct-april-2026
    - ev-core-inflation-above-2pct-25y
    - ev-30y-yield-5pct-may5
    - ev-trump-12t-interest-bill
    - ev-april-nfp-115k-may8
    - ev-april-ahe-soft-may8
    - ev-umich-sentiment-record-low-48-may
    - ev-gas-prices-454-pump-may8
    - ev-umich-1y-inflation-exp-45-may
    - ev-march-cpi-headline-33-yoy
    - ev-april-cpi-release-may12
    - ev-april-cpi-consensus-headline-37
    - ev-april-cpi-consensus-core-27
    - ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10
    - ev-wti-9807-monday-may11
    - ev-brent-10421-monday-may11
    - ev-trump-massive-life-support-may11
    - ev-april-cpi-print-headline-38-may12
    - ev-april-cpi-print-core-28-may12
    - ev-cpi-energy-component-may12
    - ev-warsh-cloture-passed-49-44-may11
    - ev-ppi-april-print-headline-14-may13
    - ev-ppi-april-core-52-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-449-wednesday-may13
    - ev-tlt-wednesday-close-8480-may13
    - ev-warsh-chair-confirmed-54-45-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-445-may14
    - ev-rate-hike-odds-40pct-may14
    - ev-april-import-prices-may14
    - ev-april-retail-sales-may14
    - ev-fedwatch-hike-by-dec-36pct-may14
    - ev-tlt-thursday-close-8492-may14
    - ev-10y-yield-thursday-close-446-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.OrCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.AndCondition
        operands:
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-core-pce-yoy
            comparator: wv.lt
            threshold: 2.5
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 3
              wv.windowUnit: wv.months
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-unemployment-rate
            comparator: wv.between
            threshold: 4.0
            thresholdHigh: 4.5
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 3
              wv.windowUnit: wv.months
      - type: wv.AndCondition
        operands:
          - type: wv.EventCondition
            event: fin.evt-us-iran-peace-agreement-implemented
            durability: wv.durable
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-wti-close
            comparator: wv.lt
            threshold: 80
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 30
              wv.windowUnit: wv.calendar-days

gold-debasement-bid:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Gold structural debasement bid
  thesisStatement: 'Gold sits in mid-cycle of a multi-year structural bull market driven by central-bank buying, sovereign de-dollarization, $39T US debt, stock-bond correlation breakdown, and Fed independence concerns. Q1 2026 set records on multiple dimensions - LBMA quarterly average $4,873/oz, central-bank net purchases 244 tonnes (highest Q1 ever, +17% QoQ), aggregate Q1 demand value $193B. Spot pulled back below $4,700 for a second straight session on Thursday May 14 (around $4,621-4,671 ask/bid by 7:55 PM ET) on the rate-up backdrop and the diplomatic-positive Trump-Xi readout. GLD $427.21 (-0.8%, Massive verified) and GDX $93.95 (-2.4%) - the miners showing characteristic leverage on the day. Major bank targets all imply materially higher levels (JPM $5,055-$6,300, UBS $6,200, Citi $5,000-$7,000); the structural-bull case is unchanged by a two-day move. The Trump-Xi Hormuz alignment is a marginal step toward the durable-peace gating of the AndCondition invalidation - small enough to justify a 0.01 trim but not a thesis-breaking event.'
  confidence: 0.86
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-gold
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Trimmed from 0.87 to 0.86. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz "must remain open" + Iran "can never have nuclear weapon" + Xi mediation offer represent a partial step toward the durable-peace leg of the AndCondition - small but real, since Xi''s influence over Iran + commercial interest in Hormuz reopening is a new structural lever. Cash complex was orderly soft on the day (GLD -0.8%, GDX -2.4%, miners showing leverage on the rate-up + diplomatic-positive backdrop) - inside normal daily noise. The AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved closer in a structurally meaningful way; the trim is the diplomatic-pathway alignment, not a structural break.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-gold-spot-4740-may8
    - ev-gld-friday-close-43377-may8
    - ev-lbma-q1-record-4873
    - ev-cb-q1-2026-244t-buying-record
    - ev-cb-survey-95pct-reserves-up
    - ev-gold-q1-2026-record-demand-193b
    - ev-stock-bond-correlation-30y-high
    - ev-jpm-gold-target-5055-6300
    - ev-ubs-gold-target-6200
    - ev-citi-gold-target-5000-7000
    - ev-bar-coin-demand-474-tonnes-q1
    - ev-uae-missile-attack-may8
    - ev-us-navy-iran-fire-exchange-may7
    - ev-cb-2026-projection-755-tonnes
    - ev-iran-response-via-pakistan-may10
    - ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10
    - ev-treasury-30y-497-may7
    - ev-gold-spot-mid-band-may11
    - ev-trump-massive-life-support-may11
    - ev-april-cpi-print-headline-38-may12
    - ev-wti-tuesday-10137-may12
    - ev-trump-nsc-military-may12
    - ev-gld-wednesday-close-43050-may13
    - ev-gdx-wednesday-close-9623-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-449-wednesday-may13
    - ev-gold-spot-4705-may14
    - ev-10y-yield-445-may14
    - ev-gold-spot-4660-thursday-may14
    - ev-gld-thursday-close-42721-may14
    - ev-gdx-thursday-close-9395-may14
    - ev-trump-xi-hormuz-must-remain-open-may14
    - ev-trump-xi-iran-no-nukes-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.AndCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.EventCondition
        event: fin.evt-us-iran-peace-agreement-implemented
        durability: wv.durable
      - type: wv.EventCondition
        event: fin.evt-fed-credibility-restored
      - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
        observable: fin.ind-us-fiscal-deficit-trailing-12m
        comparator: wv.lt
        threshold: 0
        persistence:
          wv.duration: 6
          wv.windowUnit: wv.months

ai-capex-cycle-with-china-tail:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk
  thesisStatement: 'Hyperscaler AI capex continues at elevated pace into 2026 - NVDA Q1 FY2027 (May 20) revenue guide $78B (+77% YoY) explicitly excludes China DC compute revenue, with Huang estimating the unrealized China market at ~$50B "effectively gone with no clear return timeline." AMD Q1 2026 (May 5 AH) materially confirmed the demand side - revenue $10.3B vs $9.88B consensus, Data Center +57% YoY at $5.8B, Q2 guide $11.2B vs $10.3B consensus. The Trump-Xi summit on May 14 produced the China-policy axis this thesis flagged: Reuters confirmed the US Commerce Department cleared NVIDIA H200 sales to ~10 Chinese firms (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, plus distributors Lenovo and Foxconn), capped at 75K chips per company. Deals stalled - no shipments yet, with Beijing pulling firms back - but the export-control framework just resolved on the favorable side. NVDA closed $235.74 on Thursday May 14 (+4.4%, fresh ATH, Massive verified) on the H200 news; AMD $449.70 (+0.9%, Massive verified). Cisco AH printed Q3 with $5.3B AI orders YTD and raised the FY26 AI-orders target to $9B from $5B - independent hyperscaler-spend confirmation. The May 20 NVDA print remains the binary tell - now de-risked - and the export-control headline framework is itself the second binary tell flipping favorable.'
  confidence: 0.88
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-ai
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Steps from 0.85 to 0.88 on the H200 export approval to ~10 Chinese firms (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com plus Lenovo and Foxconn distributors). The H20 / MI308 / H200 export-control surface this thesis named as the binary China-policy axis just resolved on the favorable side at the Trump-Xi summit - the EventCondition invalidation specifically forbids "durable export controls extended" and the headline movement is the opposite. Magnitude bounded by: deals have stalled (no shipments yet, Beijing pulled firms back), per-firm 75K-chip cap is meaningful, and Chinese-side absorption uncertainty remains. NVDA +4.4% to a fresh ATH $235.74 priced the breakthrough; the next binary tell (May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print at $78B / +77% YoY) is now structurally de-risked. Cisco AH +15% with FY26 AI orders raised to $9B from $5B independently confirms the hyperscaler-spend backdrop. Held below 0.90 because the China-shipment-actually-arriving leg is still unresolved.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-amd-q1-2026-blowout
    - ev-amd-q1-data-center-58b
    - ev-amd-q2-guide-112b
    - ev-amd-stock-plus18-ah
    - ev-amd-friday-close-45519-may8
    - ev-amd-su-tens-of-billions-quote
    - ev-nvda-china-revenue-zero
    - ev-nvda-h20-charge-45b
    - ev-nvda-amd-15pct-china-revshare
    - ev-gartner-semi-revenue-1t-plus-2026
    - ev-anthropic-meta-ai-partnerships
    - ev-openai-6gw-supply-agreement
    - ev-nvda-q1-fy27-78b-guide-may20
    - ev-huang-china-50b-effectively-gone
    - ev-nvda-monday-close-21944-may11
    - ev-amd-monday-up-24pct-may11
    - ev-micron-fresh-ath-may11
    - ev-nasdaq-tuesday-pullback-may12
    - ev-nvda-wednesday-close-22583-may13
    - ev-amd-wednesday-close-44550-may13
    - ev-trump-xi-summit-underway-may14
    - ev-xi-taiwan-jeopardy-may14
    - ev-h200-export-approval-may14
    - ev-h200-deals-stalled-may14
    - ev-h200-75k-chip-cap-may14
    - ev-nvda-thursday-close-23574-may14
    - ev-amd-thursday-close-44970-may14
    - ev-cisco-q3-blowout-ai-orders-may14
    - ev-nasdaq-record-26635-may14
    - ev-trump-xi-strategic-stability-may14
    - ev-trump-200-boeing-deal-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.EventCondition
    event: fin.evt-us-china-export-controls-extended
    durability: wv.durable

equity-melt-up-vs-recession-risk:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Equity melt-up versus building recession risk
  thesisStatement: 'S&P 500 closed at 7,501.24 on Thursday May 14 (+0.77%) - the first close above 7,500 in history. Nasdaq Composite +0.88% to 26,635.22 (record), DJI +0.75% to 50,063.46 (back above 50K), SPY $748.17 (Massive verified, +0.79%), VIX 17.87 (-0.7%, well inside the 15-20 mid-zone). The session absorbed an April import-prices print of +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m and still set records - the third consecutive hot inflation print (CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, imports Thursday) muscled-through into a cap-weighted record. NVDA +4.4% to a fresh ATH $235.74 on the H200 export breakthrough, Cisco AH +15% on raised FY26 AI orders to $9B from $5B - the AI-spend confirmation that lands during tomorrow''s session. April retail sales solid +0.5% m/m (third consecutive monthly increase) confirms the consumer is absorbing the passthrough rather than breaking. Q1 2026 earnings season concluded at 84% beat rate, 27.1% blended EPS growth, blended net margin 13.4% (May 7 FactSet refresh). Recession-risk leg retains support from CME FedWatch hike-by-December at ~36%, sustained energy passthrough, and the 10Y still near its 10-month high (4.461% Thursday). Invalidation requires either a vol-expansion break (VIX > 25 with SPY breaking 50d MA) or unimpeded melt-up confirmation (SPX > 7,300 with VIX < 15).'
  confidence: 0.74
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-equity
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Steps from 0.71 to 0.74 on the first SPX close above 7,500 in history (7,501.24, +0.77%) and the Nasdaq Composite record (26,635.22, +0.88%) on a session that absorbed a hot April import-prices print (+1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY, fuel +16.3% m/m) with VIX still at 17.87 inside the mid-zone. The named tell is the muscle-through across three consecutive hot inflation prints (CPI / PPI / imports) - the melt-up is structural, not noise-driven. Cisco AH +15% on raised FY26 AI orders ($9B from $5B) provides independent hyperscaler-spend confirmation that lands during the next session. April retail sales +0.5% m/m / +0.7% core says the consumer is absorbing rather than breaking. Held below the 0.80 band because the recession-risk leg stays live (CME hike-by-December ~36%, 10Y near 10-month high, hot inflation backdrop intact) and the melt-up confirmation invalidation requires VIX < 15 sustained for 5 trading days - the invalidation-favorable side has NOT fired even though SPX > 7,300 is comfortably met.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-sp500-ath-7389-may8
    - ev-sp500-friday-close-7399-may8
    - ev-spy-friday-close-73762-may8
    - ev-nasdaq-ath-26247-may8
    - ev-six-week-winning-streak-may8
    - ev-sp500-ath-7230-may1
    - ev-spx-may6-record-7365
    - ev-vix-1718-may8
    - ev-q1-2026-84pct-beat-rate
    - ev-q1-2026-eps-growth-271pct
    - ev-q1-2026-net-margin-revised-134pct
    - ev-q1-2026-magnitude-of-beats-207
    - ev-q1-2026-forward-guide-21-23
    - ev-fortune-stopped-caring-iran-quote
    - ev-sen-misplaced-euphoria-quote
    - ev-pe-multidecade-norm-above-avg
    - ev-cme-sunday-futures-open-22z
    - ev-umich-sentiment-record-low-48-may
    - ev-amd-friday-close-45519-may8
    - ev-april-cpi-consensus-headline-37
    - ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10
    - ev-spx-monday-close-7413-may11
    - ev-nasdaq-monday-close-26274-may11
    - ev-dji-monday-close-49704-may11
    - ev-russell-2000-monday-close-2870-may11
    - ev-vix-1836-monday-may11
    - ev-wti-9807-monday-may11
    - ev-trump-massive-life-support-may11
    - ev-april-cpi-print-headline-38-may12
    - ev-april-cpi-print-core-28-may12
    - ev-spx-tuesday-pullback-may12
    - ev-nasdaq-tuesday-pullback-may12
    - ev-russell-tuesday-may12
    - ev-wti-tuesday-10137-may12
    - ev-spx-wednesday-close-7444-may13
    - ev-spy-wednesday-close-74231-may13
    - ev-vix-wednesday-close-1799-may13
    - ev-ppi-april-print-headline-14-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-449-wednesday-may13
    - ev-spx-intraday-7446-may14
    - ev-vix-intraday-1798-may14
    - ev-10y-yield-445-may14
    - ev-rate-hike-odds-40pct-may14
    - ev-spx-thursday-close-7501-may14
    - ev-spy-thursday-close-74817-may14
    - ev-vix-thursday-close-1787-may14
    - ev-nasdaq-record-26635-may14
    - ev-dji-thursday-close-50063-may14
    - ev-cisco-q3-blowout-ai-orders-may14
    - ev-april-retail-sales-may14
    - ev-april-import-prices-may14
    - ev-fedwatch-hike-by-dec-36pct-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.OrCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.AndCondition
        operands:
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-vix-close
            comparator: wv.gt
            threshold: 25
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 5
              wv.windowUnit: wv.trading-days
          - type: wv.IndicatorComparison
            left: fin.ind-spy-close
            right:
              type: wv.MovingAverage
              wv.of: fin.ind-spy-close
              wv.period: 50
              wv.periodUnit: wv.trading-days
            comparator: wv.lt
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 5
              wv.windowUnit: wv.trading-days
      - type: wv.AndCondition
        operands:
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-spx-close
            comparator: wv.gt
            threshold: 7300
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 5
              wv.windowUnit: wv.trading-days
          - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
            observable: fin.ind-vix-close
            comparator: wv.lt
            threshold: 15
            persistence:
              wv.duration: 5
              wv.windowUnit: wv.trading-days

powell-warsh-transition-risk:
  type: wv.WorldviewThesis
  label: Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty
  thesisStatement: 'Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Governor 51-45 on Tuesday May 12 2026, then as Federal Reserve Chair 54-45 on Wednesday May 13 - the closest modern-era margin. Fetterman (D-PA) was the only Democratic crossover on the chair vote; Coons (D-DE) crossed only on Monday''s cloture procedural vote, narrowing the bipartisan margin on substance vs procedure. The 13-11 party-line Banking Committee advance, the 51-45 governor confirmation, and the 54-45 chair confirmation now all stand as historically partisan Fed-Chair-track outcomes. Powell''s chair term ends Friday May 15. Warsh confirmation-hearing framing - "won''t be sock puppet" / "room to cut without inflation" - introduces a dovish-tilt risk to the dollar / long-duration cross. By Thursday May 14 the rates market had priced out all 2026 cuts and CME FedWatch put hike-by-December odds at ~36% (up from ~16% a week earlier), sharpening the contradiction between Warsh''s framing and the inherited inflation backdrop (April CPI 3.8%, PPI +6.0% YoY, imports +4.2% YoY); 10Y eased 2bp to 4.461% on the day but stays near its 10-month high. No public Warsh-as-chair statement has landed; the substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC.'
  confidence: 0.5
  vis.thesisTheme: vis.theme-monetary
  status: wv.active
  confidenceRationale: 'Held at 0.50. Powell exits the chair Friday May 15 and Warsh''s first public words as chair have not yet landed - the substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement. The Thursday rate-market state (zero 2026 cuts priced, ~36% hike-by-December via CME FedWatch) sharpens the contradiction between Warsh''s "room to cut without inflation" framing and the inherited CPI / PPI / imports backdrop, but sharpening a known tension is not the same as resolving the transition question. The active question remains the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.'
  supportingEvidence:
    - ev-powell-exit-warsh-nominated-may15
    - ev-warsh-banking-cmte-13-11
    - ev-warsh-senate-vote-confirmed-may11
    - ev-warsh-cloture-monday-530-may11
    - ev-fetterman-yes-signal
    - ev-warsh-sock-puppet-quote
    - ev-warsh-room-to-cut-quote
    - ev-fed-held-april29-with-dissent
    - ev-fomc-dissent-miran-cut
    - ev-doj-powell-investigation-halted
    - ev-trump-fed-pressure-housing-debt
    - ev-warsh-historically-hawkish
    - ev-tillis-hold-lifted
    - ev-powell-stays-on-board-april29
    - ev-april-cpi-release-may12
    - ev-april-cpi-consensus-headline-37
    - ev-treasury-10y-441-may7
    - ev-treasury-30y-497-may7
    - ev-wti-9807-monday-may11
    - ev-warsh-cloture-passed-49-44-may11
    - ev-warsh-coons-cross-may11
    - ev-april-cpi-print-headline-38-may12
    - ev-april-cpi-print-core-28-may12
    - ev-warsh-chair-confirmed-54-45-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-449-wednesday-may13
    - ev-10y-yield-445-may14
    - ev-rate-hike-odds-40pct-may14
    - ev-fedwatch-hike-by-dec-36pct-may14
    - ev-10y-yield-thursday-close-446-may14
    - ev-april-import-prices-may14
  invalidationCondition:
    type: wv.AndCondition
    operands:
      - type: wv.EventCondition
        event: fin.evt-fed-chair-continuity-signal
      - type: wv.ThresholdCondition
        observable: fin.ind-fomc-dissent-count
        comparator: wv.lte
        threshold: 2
        persistence:
          wv.duration: 1
          wv.windowUnit: wv.fomc-meetings
ev-operation-epic-fury-feb28:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US-Israel coordinated airstrikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) commenced 2026-02-28, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reported killed.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-02-28

ev-iran-tomahawks-fired-2026q1:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US fired 850+ Tomahawk missiles in the first phase of the US-Iran war (Operation Epic Fury) - the highest single-campaign Tomahawk usage in history.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-03-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-03-01

ev-strait-of-hormuz-closed-march4:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran formally closed the Strait of Hormuz on 2026-03-04, threatening any vessel attempting passage. IRGC issued passage prohibitions, boarded merchant ships, and laid sea mines. Brent surged past $120/bbl on the closure; QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all exports.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-03-04T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-03-04

ev-trump-project-freedom-pause-may6:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump announced a temporary pause in "Project Freedom" (US Navy escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz) on 2026-05-06, citing "great progress" toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-06T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-06

ev-iran-mou-14-point:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'White House reported nearing a one-page 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear talks.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-06T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-06

ev-iran-14pt-counter-demands-may2:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran submitted its own 14-point counter-proposal on 2026-05-02 with maximalist demands - end of US naval blockade, release of frozen Iranian assets, lifting of sanctions, reparations, a new mechanism for Strait of Hormuz governance, and resolution within 30 days rather than the US-proposed 2-month ceasefire. Trump on May 3: "I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can''t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-02T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-02

ev-pakistan-mediated-ceasefire:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Pakistan-mediated 2-week ceasefire active as of May 8 2026. Latest peace proposal involves Iran moratorium on nuclear enrichment, US lifting sanctions, both sides lifting Hormuz transit restrictions; 30-day negotiation period for detailed terms. Iran reviewing.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-08

ev-iran-one-page-memo-may8:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran reviewing a specific one-page peace memorandum that, if signed, would declare end-of-conflict and trigger a 30-day window for nuclear-moratorium / asset-unfreeze / Hormuz-security framework to land. More concrete than the May 6 "great progress" framing. Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner negotiating directly and through mediators. Trump May 7: "very possible we''ll make a deal."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-08

ev-trump-iran-bombed-higher-level-may6:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-06 said Iran will be bombed "at a much higher level" if it does not agree to a peace deal. Set a one-week deadline. Threat-and-engage simultaneity is the negotiating posture.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-06T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-06

ev-uae-missile-attack-may8:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'UAE Defense Ministry reported on 2026-05-08 that air defenses engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched by Iran; three people wounded. Per multiple US/regional reporting, this was the biggest escalation in violence since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced four weeks ago. Iran disputed responsibility through state media. Earlier in the same May 4-8 window: a missile hit a civilian car in Al Bahyan, Abu Dhabi killing a Palestinian national; Fujairah Oil Industry Zone hit by a drone causing a fire.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-08

ev-us-navy-iran-fire-exchange-may7:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US military reported intercepting Iranian attacks on three US Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz on 2026-05-07 (Thursday night). No US ships hit. US subsequently "targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces." Top Iranian military command accused the US of violating the now-month-old ceasefire; the US said the truce remains in effect.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-07

ev-us-disabled-iran-tankers-may8:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US Central Command on 2026-05-08 disabled two empty Iranian oil tankers (M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda) attempting to reach an Iranian port in violation of the US naval blockade. F/A-18 Super Hornets fired precision munitions into the tankers'' smokestacks per published video.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-08

ev-us-sank-iran-boats-may7:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US Navy reportedly sank seven small Iranian boats during the May 7 fire exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with the tanker disabling and the UAE attack, the May 7-8 window represents the most kinetic 36-hour period since the April 12 ceasefire began.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-07

ev-april-vessels-191-month:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Just 191 vessels recorded crossing the Strait of Hormuz during the entire month of April 2026 - down from a typical pre-war monthly traffic of ~3,000 vessels. Quantifies how thin the "Hormuz transit" baseline is even when not actively contested.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-04-30

ev-qatar-lng-hormuz-transit-may9:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'A Qatar LNG tanker began transiting the Strait of Hormuz on 2026-05-09, the first vessel movement attributed to ceasefire procedures since the conflict began in March. Iranian state media reported "safe and sustainable transit" facilitated by IRGC navy under new procedures. Subsequent versions reweight it as a one-off exception inside an actively-contested environment after the May 10 Iran-US deal rejection.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T08:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-09

ev-irgc-safe-transit-commitment-may9:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'IRGC navy publicly committed on 2026-05-09 that "safe and sustainable transit will be facilitated" through the Strait of Hormuz under new procedures - phrased to reserve Iran''s framing of the strait as conditionally open at IRGC discretion rather than open by international convention. Coexists with US naval blockade actions on May 7-8 and with Iran''s broader May 10 demand for "full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T08:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.regulator
  statementDate: 2026-05-09

ev-vessels-trapped-gulf-may9:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Approximately 1,550+ vessels with 22,500 mariners reported still trapped inside the Persian Gulf as of 2026-05-09, unable to safely transit out under current conditions. Analysts (House of Commons Library briefing) describe full pre-war flow as "months if not years" away.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-09

ev-iran-48-hour-response-window-may9:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US officials on 2026-05-09 said Iranian responses to the 14-point MOU framework were expected within 48 hours, giving the Iran-deal track a concrete near-term resolution window. The window resolved May 10 with Iran formally responding via Pakistani mediators and Trump rejecting the response as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T17:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-09

ev-lebanon-most-intense-week-may8:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lebanon corridor described by regional press as having its "most intense week" since the April 16 ceasefire on 2026-05-08, with multiple cross-border incidents alongside the diplomatic timeline.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-08

ev-lebanon-talks-may14-15-may9:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Third round of Israel-Lebanon peace talks scheduled May 14-15 2026 in Washington. Lebanese delegation led by Simon Karam; Israeli delegation by Ron Dermer. State Department announcement: agenda covers border delineation, humanitarian relief, and "the full restoration of Lebanese sovereignty throughout its territory." First direct talks between the two governments in decades.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-iran-response-via-pakistan-may10:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran formally delivered its response to the US 14-point MOU framework via Pakistani mediators on 2026-05-10. IRNA reporting indicates the response covered negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear program, and the lifting of sanctions. The 48-hour response window from May 9 has resolved.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-10

ev-iran-realistic-positive-may10:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Senior Iranian official on 2026-05-10 described Tehran''s formal response to the US MOU as "realistic and positive," adding that "Washington''s positive response to our response will move the negotiations forward quickly." The framing positions Iran as constructive while preserving maximalist substantive demands.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  statementDate: 2026-05-10

ev-trump-totally-unacceptable-may10:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-10 Sunday evening responded to the Iran response: "I have just read the response from Iran''s so-called ''Representatives.'' I don''t like it - TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Posted via social media within hours of the formal delivery, the rejection materially walked back the diplomatic-track narrative that had anchored markets through May 6-9.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T22:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-10

ev-trump-playing-games-may10:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-10 accused Iran of "playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years," adding: "They will be laughing no longer!" The 47-year framing references the 1979 Islamic Revolution and signals that Trump views the current rejection as continuous with decades of Iranian conduct rather than as an isolated negotiating posture.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T22:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-10

ev-iran-rejects-us-surrender-may10:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iranian state media on 2026-05-10 simultaneously rejected the US proposal as "amounting to surrender" and reaffirmed Tehran''s demands of war reparations by the US, full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of seized Iranian assets. The framing parallels the May 2 14-point counter-proposal but is now positioned as Iran''s formal end-state position.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-10

ev-iran-hormuz-sovereignty-demand-may10:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran''s May 10 response demanded "full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" as part of the end-state. This is procedurally incompatible with the durable-reopening invalidation leg (which requires the strait to be open by international convention) and with the US naval blockade currently in force. The demand functions as a near-veto on any near-term durable reopening scenario.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-10

ev-trump-bombing-renewal-threat-may10:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-10 reiterated threats to resume full-scale bombing if Iran does not "accept an agreement to reopen the strait and roll back its nuclear program." Restates the May 6 "much higher level" framing into the post-rejection context, signaling continued threat-and-engage simultaneity rather than an immediate escalation pivot.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T22:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-10

ev-hormuz-40-ships-week-may3:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lloyd''s List recorded just 40 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the week ending 2026-05-03 - against a pre-war baseline of approximately 120 crossings per day. Quantifies how thin the post-ceasefire transit baseline is and how far it sits from "durable reopening" semantics.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-03

ev-iran-pgsa-application-rules-may:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran established a Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) requiring every vessel seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz to file an application form for IRGC permission - cementing IRGC discretionary control over the strait rather than relinquishing it. The procedural overlay parallels Iran''s broader May 10 demand for "full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-iran-uae-cumulative-attacks-april1:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'UAE Ministry of Defence as of 2026-04-01 reported cumulative Iranian fire on UAE targets of 438 ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, and 19 cruise missiles since the war began February 28. Combined with the May 4-8 escalation (Fujairah oil zone drone, Abu Dhabi civilian-car missile killing a Palestinian national, May 8 missile-and-drone barrage), the cumulative consumption rate is the denominator for the procurement-cycle thesis.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-04-01

ev-trump-massive-life-support-may11:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-11 (Monday) said the ceasefire between the US and Iran is "on massive life support" following Iran''s latest counterproposal, which he had called "totally unacceptable" Sunday evening. The framing escalates Sunday''s "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" by attaching mortality language to the ceasefire itself - the diplomatic-track narrative is now formally described as failing rather than stalled.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-11

ev-trump-knocked-them-out-again-may11:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-11 warned: "Just like we knocked them out again today, we''ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don''t get their Deal signed, FAST!" The "knocked them out again today" framing implies a fresh US-Iran kinetic exchange on Monday that the snapshot cannot fully characterize from open sources; combined with the Sunday rejection of Iran''s MOU response it signals the threat-and-engage posture has tilted further toward engage.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-11

ev-iran-never-bow-may11:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran on 2026-05-11 publicly vowed to "never bow" in response to Trump''s rejection of its MOU response. Frames Iran''s end-state position (war reparations, full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, end to sanctions, release of frozen assets) as non-negotiable rather than opening positions.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-11

ev-iran-demands-legitimate-may11:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iranian official on 2026-05-11 said Iran''s response to the US peace proposal contained "legitimate demands" - "reasonable and responsible" and "beneficial not only for Iran but also for the wider region and the world." The defensive framing positions Iran as constructive after Trump''s rejection without walking back any substantive demand, including the Hormuz sovereignty demand.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  statementDate: 2026-05-11

ev-hormuz-17-vessels-may10:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '17 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on 2026-05-10 per the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker - 13 inbound and 4 outbound. Of those, 10 were AIS-visible; 7 were "dark" (EO-only detection or AIS suppressed). The dark-vessel share quantifies the procedural opacity that Iran''s PGSA application overlay was designed to produce - transit occurs but on Iran-discretionary terms rather than open by international convention. Still far below pre-war ~120 crossings/day.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-10

ev-trump-garbage-may12:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-12 morning called Iran''s counterproposal "garbage" in remarks to reporters, escalating from Sunday''s "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" and Monday''s "massive life support" framing. The successive language escalation across three consecutive days (rejection / mortality framing / dismissal as worthless) marks the diplomatic-track narrative as formally collapsed at the rhetorical level even before kinetic re-engagement.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/12/iran-war-live-trump-slams-iranian-proposal-as-ceasefire-hangs-by-a-thread'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-12

ev-trump-1pct-chance-may12:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-12 said of the ceasefire: "I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ''Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.''" The "1% chance" framing extends Monday''s "massive life support" with a specific survival-probability metaphor - the deal narrative is described as functionally dead while threat-and-engage simultaneity continues.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-12

ev-trump-nsc-military-may12:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Multiple reports on 2026-05-12 indicated President Trump was scheduled to meet with his national security team to weigh a potential return to military operations against Iran following the Iran response rejection and the deteriorating ceasefire framing. Confirms threat-and-engage simultaneity has tilted further toward engage without yet producing a fresh-fire event.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T13:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-12

ev-iran-heavy-assault-warning-may12:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Iran''s military on 2026-05-12 warned of a "heavy assault" against US assets in the Middle East if Iranian vessels face more attacks during the ceasefire. The explicit conditional threat raises the kinetic-engagement probability if either side acts unilaterally on the Hormuz shipping front.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/11/world/live-news/iran-war-proposal-trump'
  statementDate: 2026-05-12

ev-aramco-ceo-100m-bbl-may12:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on 2026-05-12 framed the supply impact of the Iran-war Hormuz disruption as "roughly 100 million barrels of supply each week" with market normalization potentially deferred into next year if disruptions persist. The first major industry-CEO supply-side quantification of the shipping-flow impairment - shifts the energy narrative from "wartime premium that could unwind" to "structural supply impairment requiring months to rebuild even after a deal."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html'
  speakerRole: fin.ceo
  statementDate: 2026-05-12

ev-wti-95-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI crude settled at $95.42 on 2026-05-08, marginally higher on the day. Down from $104 on May 5 reflecting the May 6-8 ceasefire / MOU progression and a partial unwinding of the wartime premium. Two-contract weekly losses of more than 6% as the market priced the ceasefire holding.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 95.42

ev-brent-101-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent crude futures closed at $101.29 on 2026-05-08, +1% on the day on the UAE attack and Iran-tanker fire-exchange news, but down more than 6% on the week as the underlying ceasefire / MOU framework held the wartime premium back. Goldman maintains a $77.50 target ~25% below spot.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 101.29

ev-sp500-ath-7389-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high of 7,398.93 on May 8 2026, +0.84% on the day. Closed above the 7,300 melt-up threshold for several consecutive sessions.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7398.93

ev-sp500-friday-close-7399-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 Friday May 8 closing print confirmed at 7,398.93, +0.84% on the day. Sixth consecutive winning week (longest since 2024); week +2.3%.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7398.93

ev-spy-friday-close-73762-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'SPY ETF Friday May 8 close $737.62 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/prev API call on 2026-05-11. Friday session OHLC: open $734.93, high $738.08, low $734.57, close $737.62, volume 47.2M, VWAP $736.54. Tracks the SPX cash 7,398.93 close at the standard ~10x divisor.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spy
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 737.62

ev-nasdaq-ath-26247-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Nasdaq closed at a fresh all-time high of 26,247.08 on May 8 2026, +1.71%. Week +4.5% led by AI/semis follow-through from the AMD Q1 print.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.ixic
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 26247.08

ev-six-week-winning-streak-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'SPX and Nasdaq both posted six consecutive winning weeks through May 8 2026 - the longest winning streak since 2024.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-sp500-ath-7230-may1:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 7,230 on May 1 2026.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-01T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7230.0

ev-spx-may6-record-7365:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'SPX closed at a record 7,365.12 on May 6 2026 (+1.46%) on Iran ceasefire euphoria and AMD Q1 follow-through.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-06T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7365.12

ev-vix-1718-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VIX at 17.08 on 2026-05-08. Sits in the 15-20 normal-business-conditions range despite the active Iran negotiations and the imminent Fed transition.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.vix
  fin.marketMetric: fin.volatility-level
  fin.observedValue: 17.08

ev-cme-sunday-futures-open-22z:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'CME e-mini SPX futures Sunday session opens 18:00 ET / 22:00 UTC on 2026-05-10 - the first market window for repricing after the Friday cash close (SPX 7,398.93) given the May 7-8 escalation and the May 10 Trump rejection of Iran''s formal response.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T00:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx

ev-30y-yield-5pct-may5:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '30-year US Treasury yield at approximately 5% on May 5 2026.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.observedValue: 5.0

ev-treasury-10y-441-may7:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '10-year US Treasury yield at 4.41% on 2026-05-07 - verified via Massive /fed/v1/treasury-yields endpoint on 2026-05-11. May 8 through May 12 not yet posted in the upstream Fed dataset (typical 1-day lag). Earlier in the week: 4.43% (May 5), 4.36% (May 6).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-07T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.observedValue: 4.41

ev-treasury-30y-497-may7:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '30-year US Treasury yield at 4.97% on 2026-05-07 - verified via Massive /fed/v1/treasury-yields endpoint on 2026-05-11. Sustained near 5% across the week (4.98% May 5, 4.94% May 6, 4.97% May 7). Term-premium signal of fiscal stress, supportive of gold and stagflation theses. May 8 through May 12 not yet posted upstream at snapshot time.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-07T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.observedValue: 4.97

ev-pe-multidecade-norm-above-avg:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Forward P/E sits multi-decade above norm, leaving SPX with little fundamental cushion against an earnings disappointment or vol shock.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-q1-2026-84pct-beat-rate:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Q1 2026 S&P 500 beat rate ran at 84% (highest since Q2 2021).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-q1-2026-eps-growth-271pct:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Q1 2026 S&P 500 blended EPS growth 27.1% YoY (FactSet refresh).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-q1-2026-magnitude-of-beats-207:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Q1 2026 magnitude of EPS beats running 20.7% above expectations.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-q1-2026-net-margin-revised-134pct:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Q1 2026 S&P 500 blended net margin revised to 13.4% (May 7 FactSet refresh).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-07T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-q1-2026-forward-guide-21-23:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Q1 2026 forward EPS guidance running in the 21-23% YoY range, supporting the melt-up case into the next reporting cycle.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-fortune-stopped-caring-iran-quote:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '"It''s like the markets stopped caring about Iran" - Fortune editorial framing of the May 6-7 melt-up despite ongoing kinetic activity in the Persian Gulf.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-07T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  speakerRole: wv.journalist
  statementDate: 2026-05-07

ev-sen-misplaced-euphoria-quote:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Senate Banking Committee minority warning of "misplaced euphoria" in equity markets relative to the underlying geopolitical and Fed-transition risk premia.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-06T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  speakerRole: wv.legislator
  statementDate: 2026-05-06

ev-spx-monday-close-7413-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 closed at 7,412.84 on Monday 2026-05-11, +13.91 (+0.19%) - the first close above 7,400. Both SPX and Nasdaq set fresh all-time intraday highs during the session; the cash market absorbed the Sunday Trump rejection of Iran''s MOU response and the Monday "massive life support" escalation. Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7412.84

ev-nasdaq-monday-close-26274-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,274.13 on Monday 2026-05-11, +27.05 (+0.10%) - a fresh all-time high. Chip-stock rotation continued with Micron printing a fresh record and AMD / NVDA extending the Friday post-Q1 rally. Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.ixic
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 26274.13

ev-dji-monday-close-49704-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,704.47 on Monday 2026-05-11, +95.31 (+0.19%). Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 49704.47

ev-russell-2000-monday-close-2870-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Russell 2000 closed at 2,869.84 on Monday 2026-05-11, +8.63 (+0.30%) - small caps outperformed the broad index, setting records alongside SPX and NDX. Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 2869.84

ev-vix-1836-monday-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VIX closed at 18.36 on Monday 2026-05-11, +1.17 (+6.80%) on the Iran-rejection vol expansion. Still well below the 25 vol-expansion invalidation threshold; sentiment-vs-price divergence widens further. Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.vix
  fin.marketMetric: fin.volatility-level
  fin.observedValue: 18.36

ev-wti-9807-monday-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI June futures settled $98.07 on Monday 2026-05-11, +3% (intraday near $99) on the Trump rejection of Iran''s MOU response and the Iran-sovereignty demand. The direct price response confirms the structural energy-shock transmission rather than markets shrugging the rejection off. Reverses the prior week''s 6% drawdown toward the deal-optimism baseline.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 98.07

ev-brent-10421-monday-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent July futures settled $104.21 on Monday 2026-05-11, +3% (intraday above $105). Mirrors the WTI move on the Iran-rejection / Hormuz-sovereignty demand and the implied Monday kinetic exchange. Goldman $77.50 target unchanged ~25% below settle.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 104.21

ev-gold-spot-mid-band-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Gold spot pulled back to roughly $4,677-4,730 on Monday 2026-05-11 from Friday''s $4,720-4,740 range - inside the normal daily band rather than a structural break. The structural-bull supports (central-bank Q1 record 244t buying, 30Y at 4.97%, major bank targets implying materially higher levels) remain unaffected by the one-day move.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.observedValue: 4700.0

ev-wti-tuesday-10137-may12:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI June futures rose +3.3% intraday Tuesday 2026-05-12 to $101.37 - the first triple-digit trade since the post-ceasefire drawdown. Move extends Monday''s +3% rather than mean-reverting; direct response to Trump rejection escalation ("garbage" / "1% chance"), Iran "heavy assault" threat, and reports of Trump weighing military options. Confirms structural transmission past the Monday move.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html'
  fin.observedValue: 101.37

ev-brent-tuesday-10758-may12:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent July futures rose +3.2% intraday Tuesday 2026-05-12 to $107.58. Mirrors the WTI move; second consecutive day of 3%+ oil rallies on Iran-deal collapse. Goldman $77.50 target now ~30% below intraday spot.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html'
  fin.observedValue: 107.58

ev-spx-tuesday-pullback-may12:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 -0.37% intraday in the first session-hour Tuesday 2026-05-12 following the 8:30 AM ET hot April CPI print and the WTI break above $100. First direct pullback from Monday''s fresh-ATH close 7,412.84; muscle-through hypothesis the 1.0.8 step-up partially relied on did not survive the first hour of cash after the print.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/12/stock-market-live-may-12-2026-sp-500-spy-sinks-on-higher-inflation/'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.observedValue: -0.0037

ev-nasdaq-tuesday-pullback-may12:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Nasdaq Composite -0.65% intraday in the first session-hour Tuesday 2026-05-12 - tech-led drawdown sparked by the hot April CPI and WTI break above $100. Larger drop than the SPX -0.37% / DJI -0.21%, reflecting chip-stock vulnerability to higher rates and energy passthrough.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/12/stock-market-live-may-12-2026-sp-500-spy-sinks-on-higher-inflation/'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.ixic
  fin.observedValue: -0.0065

ev-russell-tuesday-may12:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Russell 2000 +0.33% intraday Tuesday 2026-05-12 - small caps diverged positively from large-cap weakness even as broader markets pulled back on the hot CPI / oil-spike combination. The mixed cap-segment reaction is consistent with a tactical reweighting rather than a thesis-breaking macro break.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/12/stock-market-live-may-12-2026-sp-500-spy-sinks-on-higher-inflation/'
  fin.observedValue: 0.0033

ev-amd-q1-2026-blowout:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD Q1 2026 (May 5 AH) reported revenue $10.3B vs $9.88B consensus, EPS $0.97 vs $0.93 consensus.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.corporateMetric: fin.revenue
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-amd-q1-data-center-58b:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD Data Center segment revenue $5.8B in Q1 2026, +57% YoY vs $5.4B consensus.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.corporateMetric: fin.segment-revenue
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-amd-q2-guide-112b:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD Q2 2026 revenue guidance $11.2B vs $10.3B consensus, signaling sustained data-center demand momentum.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q2-2026

ev-amd-stock-plus18-ah:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD stock +18% in after-hours trading on the May 5 Q1 print.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd

ev-amd-friday-close-45519-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD Friday May 8 close $455.19 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/AMD/prev API call on 2026-05-11. Friday session OHLC: open $418.59, high $456.29, low $418.29, close $455.19, volume 58.1M, VWAP $441.70. The +8.7% intraday move on Friday extends the May 5 AH print follow-through and confirms the post-Q1 reset of the AMD narrative.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 455.19

ev-amd-su-tens-of-billions-quote:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lisa Su (AMD CEO) on the Q1 call: "tens of billions" in incremental MI300/MI325 demand visibility through 2026.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T20:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: fin.ceo
  statementDate: 2026-05-05

ev-nvda-china-revenue-zero:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVIDIA China data-center revenue effectively zero post-Trump export controls, with no clear timeline for return.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda

ev-nvda-h20-charge-45b:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVDA $4.5B H20-related charge taken in the prior quarter against the China export-control impairment.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda

ev-nvda-amd-15pct-china-revshare:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVIDIA H20 / AMD MI308 export deal includes a 15% revenue share to the US Treasury - novel structural offset against the China impairment.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-gartner-semi-revenue-1t-plus-2026:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Gartner projects 2026 semiconductor revenue exceeds $1.3 trillion with AI capturing roughly 30% share.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-anthropic-meta-ai-partnerships:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Anthropic-Meta and other large AI partnerships continue to extend training compute commitments, supporting the hyperscaler capex demand side of the AI thesis.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-openai-6gw-supply-agreement:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'OpenAI 6 GW supply agreement signed; multi-year compute pipeline.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-nvda-q1-fy27-78b-guide-may20:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 earnings call set for 2026-05-20 5 PM ET. Management revenue guide $78B (+77% YoY) explicitly excludes all China data-center compute revenue. Consensus revenue $78.8B and EPS $1.78. The print is the next material datapoint for the AI-capex thesis.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda

ev-huang-china-50b-effectively-gone:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) estimated the unrealized Chinese data-center market at approximately $50B and characterized that revenue stream as "effectively gone with no clear return timeline." Frames the China-decoupling tail as priced rather than open-risk.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-04T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: fin.ceo
  statementDate: 2026-05-04

ev-nvda-monday-close-21944-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVDA closed at $219.44 on Monday 2026-05-11, +$4.22 (+1.96%) - extending the post-AMD Q1 chip-stock rally into the May 20 NVDA print. Friday close was $215.20 (Massive verified). Source: Yahoo Finance.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 219.44

ev-amd-monday-up-24pct-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'AMD closed up approximately 2.4% on Monday 2026-05-11, extending Friday''s +8.7% to $455.19. The post-Q1 follow-through has now spanned three sessions (May 5 AH +18%, May 8 +8.7%, May 11 +2.4%) on sustained chip-stock rotation toward data-center exposure.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price

ev-micron-fresh-ath-may11:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Micron Technology (MU) closed at $788.73 on Monday 2026-05-11 - a fresh all-time high. Micron posted its strongest five-day performance in 16 years (+30%) as AI memory demand accelerates. Wall Street observing a "changing of the guard in AI" with capital rotating from NVDA into Intel, AMD, and Micron.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 788.73

ev-fy2026-defense-budget-1t:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'FY2026 US defense budget reached $1 trillion, structurally elevated against Iran-war munitions consumption rates.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-fy2027-defense-budget-projection:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'FY2027 US defense budget projected to grow further to support Golden Dome ($185B) and continued Iran-war replenishment.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-lmt-backlog-194b-q1-2026:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lockheed Martin (LMT) backlog grew to $194B as of Q1 2026.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.lmt
  fin.corporateMetric: fin.backlog
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-rtx-backlog-271b-q1-2026:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'RTX (Raytheon Technologies) backlog grew to a record $271B as of Q1 2026. Double-digit organic sales growth; full-year EPS guidance raised to $6.70-$6.90, sales to $92.5-$93.5B.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.rtx
  fin.corporateMetric: fin.backlog
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q1-2026

ev-trump-buyback-eo:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump executive order limits defense-contractor stock buybacks until production capacity catches up to procurement orders, forcing capex into manufacturing.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-fed-held-april29-with-dissent:
  type: fin.CentralBankEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on April 29 2026 with an 8-4 dissent vote - the most dissents on a single FOMC decision since October 1992.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-29T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.centralBank: fin.fomc
  fin.meetingDate: 2026-04-29

ev-fomc-dissent-miran-cut:
  type: fin.CentralBankEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 29 FOMC dissent breakdown - Stephen Miran preferred a 1/4 percentage point cut at the meeting; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported holding but opposed inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-29T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.centralBank: fin.fomc
  fin.meetingDate: 2026-04-29

ev-fomc-statement-inflation-elevated-energy:
  type: fin.CentralBankEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 29 FOMC statement said "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." Explicitly attributes the elevated print to the post-Iran-war oil shock.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-29T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.centralBank: fin.fomc
  fin.meetingDate: 2026-04-29

ev-market-prices-zero-2026-cuts:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Market is pricing zero rate moves in 2026 and one cut in December 2027, indicating a higher-for-longer rate path.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.marketMetric: fin.rate-path-expectations
  fin.observedValue: 0.0

ev-unemployment-mid-4pct-april-2026:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US unemployment rate sitting at 4.3-4.4% - elevated relative to recent cycle lows but not recession-territory.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026

ev-core-inflation-above-2pct-25y:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Core inflation has run above the Fed''s 2% target for 25-30 years, with the recent pickup making the target appear structurally unreachable.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: trailing 25-30 years

ev-trump-12t-interest-bill:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump White House annual interest bill on US debt projected at $1.2 trillion - structural fiscal pressure that motivates rate-cut political pressure on the Fed.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-05T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-trump-fed-pressure-housing-debt:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump White House continues public pressure on the Fed to support housing and labor markets and to provide debt-servicing relief through lower rates.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-march-cpi-headline-33-yoy:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'March 2026 CPI headline 3.3% YoY (released April 10) - up from 2.4% one year earlier per Federal Reserve communications, attributed in part to Iran-war energy price pickup.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-10T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: March 2026

ev-april-cpi-release-may12:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 CPI scheduled for release Tuesday 2026-05-12 8:30 AM ET. First read on whether the energy-driven inflation pickup sustains beyond March''s 3.3% YoY headline. Releases under Powell''s chair (until Friday May 15) and into Warsh''s confirmation week. Monday May 11 oil settles (WTI +3% to $98.07, Brent +3% to $104.21) mechanically lock the gasoline passthrough into the print.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026

ev-april-cpi-consensus-headline-37:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 CPI consensus headline forecast 3.7-3.8% YoY (vs March 3.3%) - Kiplinger, Wells Fargo (3.8%), Barclays (3.7%) and others explicitly attribute the lift to gasoline passthrough. Monthly headline forecast ~0.55-0.70% m/m. Multiple commentaries note the print would push the 12-month rate close to 4.0%.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.analystInstitution: fin.market-consensus
  fin.forecastValue: 3.75

ev-april-cpi-consensus-core-27:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 core CPI consensus 2.7% YoY, +0.3% m/m. Several forecasters (Wells Fargo) call for slightly hotter +0.50% m/m and 2.9% YoY. Core has been the relatively-restrained component, masked by the energy-driven headline pickup.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-10T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.analystInstitution: fin.market-consensus
  fin.forecastValue: 2.7

ev-april-cpi-print-headline-38-may12:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 CPI headline came in at 3.8% YoY (vs 3.7% consensus, highest reading since May 2023) on +0.6% m/m - released by BLS at 8:30 AM ET on 2026-05-12. The print sits half a percentage point above March''s 3.3%, and CNBC characterization: "the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continues to push prices higher."'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 3.8

ev-april-cpi-print-core-28-may12:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 core CPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 2.8% YoY (vs 2.7% consensus) on +0.4% m/m - released by BLS at 8:30 AM ET on 2026-05-12. The core surprise keeps inflation well above the Fed''s 2% goal and is harder to attribute to the energy passthrough alone, indicating the inflation lift has broader composition than a pure oil pass-through narrative.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 2.8

ev-cpi-energy-component-may12:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'BLS April 2026 CPI release: energy prices rose 3.8% m/m, accounting for more than 40% of the headline 0.6% m/m gain; food prices climbed 0.5%. The energy attribution is the BLS itself, providing direct statistical confirmation of the Iran-war energy passthrough mechanism the worldview''s stagflation thesis has tracked since the March 3.3% headline.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-12T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 3.8

ev-umich-sentiment-record-low-48-may:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary May 2026 reading 48.2, fresh record low. Below market expectations of 49.5 and below April final 49.8. Current conditions component dropped about 9% to 47.8 on rising-price concerns over personal finances and major purchases.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: May 2026 preliminary
  indicatorValue: 48.2

ev-gas-prices-454-pump-may8:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US national average gasoline price $4.54 per gallon as of 2026-05-08 per AAA - +44% from a year earlier on the Iran-war energy effects. About one-third of UMich May respondents spontaneously cited gas prices when asked about economic conditions.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: 2026-05-08
  indicatorValue: 4.54

ev-umich-1y-inflation-exp-45-may:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'UMich May preliminary 1-year inflation expectations 4.5% (down a tick from April 4.7% but elevated). Long-run (5-10 year) inflation expectations 3.4% (down from 3.5%). Real income expectations continued declining from March.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: May 2026 preliminary
  indicatorValue: 4.5

ev-april-nfp-115k-may8:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 nonfarm payrolls printed 115K versus 185K March; soft labor signal.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 115.0

ev-april-ahe-soft-may8:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 average hourly earnings +3.6% YoY versus +3.8% expected; easing wage pressure on the inflation side.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 3.6

ev-powell-exit-warsh-nominated-may15:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Jerome Powell exits as Fed Chair on May 15 2026; Kevin Warsh nominated as successor. Powell remains on Board of Governors through 2028 (governor term).'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-15

ev-warsh-banking-cmte-13-11:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines on 2026-04-29 to advance Kevin Warsh''s nomination - the first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed Chair nominee in committee history.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-29T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  effectiveDate: 2026-04-29

ev-warsh-senate-vote-confirmed-may11:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Full Senate scheduled to vote on Warsh confirmation Monday May 11 2026 at 5:30 PM ET (21:30 UTC). Republicans hold 53-seat majority; simple majority required; confirmation widely expected before Powell''s term expires May 15. Warsh would take over at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-09T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-11

ev-warsh-cloture-monday-530-may11:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Warsh Senate cloture vote scheduled Monday May 11 2026 at 5:30 PM ET (21:30 UTC). Two roll call votes scheduled - first on S.Res.690 (en bloc nominations resolution), second on cloture motion for Warsh''s nomination (Executive Calendar #728, Member of the Board of Governors). Cloture filed by Majority Leader Thune on April 30.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-11

ev-fetterman-yes-signal:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) told Semafor he plans to vote in favor of Warsh''s confirmation, providing a bipartisan support signal.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: wv.legislator
  statementDate: 2026-05-08

ev-warsh-sock-puppet-quote:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Warsh told senators at his confirmation hearing he "won''t be Trump''s sock puppet" and would act independently of presidential pressure.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-21T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: fin.fed-chair-nominee
  statementVenue: Senate Banking confirmation hearing
  statementDate: 2026-04-21

ev-warsh-room-to-cut-quote:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Warsh argued in confirmation testimony that there is room to cut interest rates without sparking more inflation - a dovish-leaning frame given current 8-4 dissent split.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-21T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  speakerRole: fin.fed-chair-nominee
  statementVenue: Senate Banking confirmation hearing
  statementDate: 2026-04-21

ev-doj-powell-investigation-halted:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'DOJ Powell investigation has been halted, clearing the path for the Warsh confirmation. Creates political subtext to the Fed transition.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-tillis-hold-lifted:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Senator Thom Tillis dropped his hold on the Warsh nomination after DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Powell - clearing the procedural path for the April 29 committee vote.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-28T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-warsh-historically-hawkish:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Kevin Warsh has historically been more hawkish than the current dovish-leaning FOMC median, though his "room to cut without inflation" testimony introduces a nuance.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  fin.analystInstitution: fin.market-consensus
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-powell-stays-on-board-april29:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Powell stays on Federal Reserve Board of Governors through 2028 governor term after May 15 exit from chair role.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong

ev-warsh-cloture-passed-49-44-may11:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Senate voted 49-44 on Monday 2026-05-11 evening to invoke cloture on Kevin Warsh''s nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - the first in a series of procedural and confirmation votes expected through the week. Governor-confirmation roll-call (14-year Board term) follows Tuesday May 12; separate Fed Chair confirmation vote (4-year chair term) expected Wednesday or later; full confirmation expected before Powell''s chair-term expiry Friday May 15.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T22:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/warsh-s-fed-nomination-clears-first-in-series-of-senate-votes'
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-11

ev-warsh-coons-cross-may11:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) joined Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) in crossing party lines on Monday 2026-05-11 cloture vote on Warsh''s Fed-Board nomination - one more Democratic crossover than the May 9 baseline assumption. Still narrowly partisan but slightly more bipartisan than the 13-11 party-line Banking Committee vote, mitigating but not removing the historically-partisan-Fed-Chair pattern.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-11T22:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://rollcall.com/2026/05/11/warsh-moves-closer-to-fed-role-with-senate-cloture-vote/'
  speakerRole: wv.legislator
  statementDate: 2026-05-11

ev-gold-spot-4740-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Gold spot $4,720-4,740 on 2026-05-08 - highest since April 22 with weekly gain over 2%. Held the bid even as Brent retreated week-on-week, supporting the structural-bull case independent of energy.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.observedValue: 4740.0

ev-gld-friday-close-43377-may8:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'GLD ETF Friday May 8 close $433.77 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/GLD/prev API call on 2026-05-11. Friday session OHLC: open $434.05, high $436.20, low $431.70, close $433.77, volume 5.38M, VWAP $433.89. Tracks gold spot $4,720-4,740 at the standard ~10.9x divisor and confirms the cash-market bid held through the week.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 433.77

ev-lbma-q1-record-4873:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'LBMA (PM) gold price set a new quarterly average record of $4,873/oz in Q1 2026.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.marketMetric: fin.quarterly-average-price
  fin.observedValue: 4873.0

ev-cb-q1-2026-244t-buying-record:
  type: fin.InstitutionalFlowEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Central banks added 244 tonnes of gold to official reserves in Q1 2026 - the strongest Q1 for sovereign gold buying on record per World Gold Council. +17% QoQ, +3% YoY.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.flowDirection: fin.flow-buying
  fin.flowMagnitudeValue: 244.0
  fin.flowMagnitudeUnit: tonnes

ev-cb-survey-95pct-reserves-up:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'World Gold Council central bank survey - 95% of respondents expect official gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-gold-q1-2026-record-demand-193b:
  type: fin.InstitutionalFlowEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Aggregate Q1 2026 gold demand value $193B - record on a value basis.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.flowDirection: fin.flow-buying
  fin.flowMagnitudeValue: 193.0
  fin.flowMagnitudeUnit: USD-billions

ev-bar-coin-demand-474-tonnes-q1:
  type: fin.InstitutionalFlowEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Bar and coin retail demand 474 tonnes in Q1 2026, supplementing the central-bank channel.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.flowDirection: fin.flow-buying
  fin.flowMagnitudeValue: 474.0
  fin.flowMagnitudeUnit: tonnes

ev-stock-bond-correlation-30y-high:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Stock-bond correlation at 30-year high - traditional 60/40 hedge weakening, supporting gold as a portfolio diversifier.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate

ev-jpm-gold-target-5055-6300:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'JPMorgan gold price target range $5,055-$6,300 for the next 12-18 months.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.forecastValue: 5677.5

ev-ubs-gold-target-6200:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'UBS gold price target $6,200 for 2026.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.forecastValue: 6200.0
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-citi-gold-target-5000-7000:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Citi gold price target range $5,000-$7,000 for the medium term.'
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.forecastValue: 6000.0

ev-cb-2026-projection-755-tonnes:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '2026 central bank gold purchases projected at ~755 tonnes - a step lower than the 1,000+ tonne peak of the last three years but materially elevated against pre-2022 averages of 400-500 tonnes.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-goldman-brent-target-raise:
  type: fin.AnalystEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Goldman Sachs maintains a $77.50 Brent target - approximately 25% below the May 8 spot of $101.29, framing the wartime premium as transient.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  fin.forecastValue: 77.50
  fin.forecastHorizon: fin.horizon-12-month

ev-warsh-chair-confirmed-54-45-may13:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on 2026-05-13 in a 54-45 vote - the closest margin in the modern era for a Fed Chair confirmation. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) was again the only Democratic crossover. Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell, whose chair term expires Friday 2026-05-15; Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16-17.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T22:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/13/kevin-warsh-wins-senate-confirmation-as-the-next-federal-reserve-chair.html'
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-13

ev-ppi-april-print-headline-14-may13:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 producer prices rose 1.4% m/m - the sharpest monthly gain since 2022, against a 0.5% consensus - and 6.0% YoY versus a 4.7% forecast. Released by BLS on 2026-05-13, the print is wholesale-inflation confirmation running hotter than the April CPI and broadens the energy-passthrough story the stagflation thesis tracks.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_05132026.htm'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 6.0

ev-ppi-april-core-52-may13:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 1.0% m/m versus a 0.4% estimate and accelerated to 5.2% YoY - the highest core wholesale reading in more than three years. Released by BLS on 2026-05-13. The core surprise indicates the inflation lift has broader composition than a pure energy pass-through.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_05132026.htm'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 5.2

ev-spx-wednesday-close-7444-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high of 7,444.25 on Wednesday 2026-05-13, +0.58% on the day, reclaiming and exceeding Monday''s 7,412.84 record. The cash market absorbed the hot April PPI print and a further leg up in long-duration yields and still set a record - the muscle-through hypothesis Tuesday partially broke is restored.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/stock-market-today-may-13-2026-updates'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7444.25

ev-spy-wednesday-close-74231-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'SPY ETF closed at $742.31 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/prev. Session OHLC: open $738.47, high $743.91, low $735.47, close $742.31, volume 44.2M, VWAP $740.80. Tracks the SPX cash 7,444.25 record close at the standard ~10x divisor.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spy
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 742.31

ev-vix-wednesday-close-1799-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VIX closed at 17.99 on Wednesday 2026-05-13, down from Tuesday''s 18.38 - volatility fell on a session that absorbed a hot PPI print and still set an equity record. Sits in the 15-20 normal-business range, above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold and well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold. Sourced via web research due to the Massive index-aggregate endpoint returning NOT_AUTHORIZED under the current plan tier.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/cboe-volatility-index-vix-fed-data.html'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.vix
  fin.marketMetric: fin.volatility-level
  fin.observedValue: 17.99

ev-10y-yield-449-wednesday-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '10-year US Treasury yield pressed to 4.49% on Wednesday 2026-05-13, its highest level since July 2025, on the hot April PPI print. Long-duration repricing continues the bond-market validation of the structural-inflation backdrop. Sourced via web research because the Massive treasury-yields endpoint returned no data for the requested date.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/13/treasury-yields-fall-as-investors-digest-hotter-than-expected-cpi-data.html'
  fin.observedValue: 4.49

ev-tlt-wednesday-close-8480-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $84.80 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/TLT/prev - near the low end of its recent range as long-duration yields broke to a 10-month high on the April PPI shock.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/TLT/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.tlt
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 84.80

ev-nvda-wednesday-close-22583-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $225.83 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/NVDA/prev, +$5.05 (+2.3%) from Tuesday''s $220.78. The cap-weighted chip leader strengthened on a hot-PPI day, leading the semiconductor complex higher into the May 20 Q1 FY2027 print.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/NVDA/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 225.83

ev-amd-wednesday-close-44550-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed at $445.50 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/AMD/prev - roughly flat versus Tuesday''s $448.29, holding the post-Q1 data-center reset of the AMD narrative.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/AMD/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 445.50

ev-lmt-wednesday-close-51994-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lockheed Martin (LMT) closed at $519.94 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/LMT/prev - marginally softer than Tuesday''s $521.00 within daily noise.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/LMT/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.lmt
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 519.94

ev-rtx-wednesday-close-17811-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'RTX Corporation (RTX) closed at $178.11 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/RTX/prev - marginally softer than Tuesday''s $178.89 within daily noise.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/RTX/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.rtx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 178.11

ev-noc-wednesday-close-55180-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Northrop Grumman (NOC) closed at $551.80 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/NOC/prev. Completes the defense-prime close set alongside LMT and RTX for the refresh window.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/NOC/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.noc
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 551.80

ev-gld-wednesday-close-43050-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'GLD ETF closed at $430.50 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/GLD/prev - down about 0.6% from Tuesday''s $432.93 on a second consecutive rate-up day, an orderly pullback rather than a structural break.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/GLD/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 430.50

ev-gdx-wednesday-close-9623-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed at $96.23 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/GDX/prev - down about 0.9% from Tuesday''s $97.14, an orderly pullback consistent with the rate-up tape.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/GDX/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gdx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 96.23

ev-xle-wednesday-close-5763-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) closed at $57.63 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/XLE/prev - roughly flat versus Tuesday''s $57.57 as the energy complex consolidated.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/XLE/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.xle
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 57.63

ev-xom-wednesday-close-15157-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $151.57 on Wednesday 2026-05-13 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/XOM/prev - holding the energy-sector repricing as crude consolidated near $102 WTI.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/XOM/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.xom
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 151.57

ev-wti-wednesday-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI crude front-month futures steadied near $102 per barrel on Wednesday 2026-05-13, consolidating Tuesday''s $102.18 settle with no fresh Iran or OPEC catalyst on the wire. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-05-12-2026/'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 102.0

ev-brent-wednesday-may13:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent crude front-month futures held near $107 per barrel on Wednesday 2026-05-13, consolidating Tuesday''s $107.77 settle. The EIA projects Brent near $106 for May and June 2026. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 107.0

ev-spx-intraday-7446-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The S&P 500 traded near 7,446.17 (+0.6%) intraday on Thursday 2026-05-14, nudging a fresh intraday high just above Wednesday''s 7,444.25 record close. Sourced via web research; no May 14 cash close was available at refresh time.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.observedValue: 7446.17

ev-vix-intraday-1798-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The VIX traded near 17.98 intraday on Thursday 2026-05-14, roughly flat on the day and inside the 15-20 normal-business range - above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold and well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold. Sourced via web research; the Massive index-aggregate endpoint returns NOT_AUTHORIZED under the current plan tier.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-historical-data'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.vix
  fin.marketMetric: fin.volatility-level
  fin.observedValue: 17.98

ev-10y-yield-445-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The 10-year US Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.45-4.46% on Thursday 2026-05-14, down a few basis points from Wednesday''s 4.49% but still near its highest level since mid 2025 as the hot April CPI and PPI keep higher-for-longer expectations intact. Sourced via web research; the Massive treasury-yields endpoint returned empty results for both 2026-05-13 and 2026-05-14 (upstream Fed-dataset lag).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield'
  fin.observedValue: 4.45

ev-rate-hike-odds-40pct-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Following the hot April CPI (3.8% headline) and April PPI (+6.0% YoY), futures markets as of 2026-05-14 had priced out all 2026 rate cuts and were pricing roughly a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end - a sharp repricing from three cuts expected a month earlier. Multiple commentaries questioned whether incoming Chair Warsh could muster support for any cut under an oil-above-100, hot-inflation backdrop. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/markets-raise-chances-for-a-fed-rate-hike-following-hot-inflation-report.html'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.rate-path-expectations
  fin.observedValue: 0.40

ev-trump-xi-summit-underway-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The Trump-Xi summit convened in Beijing on 2026-05-14 for a two-day session (May 14-15), with trade, tariffs, rare earths, Taiwan, AI export controls and the US-Iran war on the agenda. The state visit had been postponed from early April because of the Iran war. The summit is the venue at which the H20 / MI308 AI export-control framework would be negotiated.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/trump-xi-summit-beijing-takeaway-taiwan-trade-iran-war-strategic-relations-.html'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-xi-taiwan-jeopardy-may14:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Chinese President Xi Jinping, opening the Beijing summit on 2026-05-14, warned President Trump that mishandling Taiwan would put the US-China relationship in "great jeopardy" - setting a confrontational tone on the security track even as trade, tariffs and AI export controls were on the agenda.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T12:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/trump-xi-beijing-summit-trade-taiwan-ai-iran-rare-earths-tariffs.html'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-14

ev-lebanon-israel-third-round-opens-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The third round of direct Israel-Lebanon peace talks opened in Washington on 2026-05-14, expected to continue Friday May 15. Both sides broadened their delegations beyond the ambassador-level prior rounds: Lebanese Presidential Special Envoy Simon Karam, Israel''s Deputy National Security Adviser Yossi Draznin, and senior Israeli military representatives. Lebanon pressed for an Israeli ceasefire; Israeli PM Netanyahu has named Hezbollah disarmament a fundamental demand. Supersedes the May 9 scheduling note that anticipated a Dermer-led delegation.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T14:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.npr.org/2026/05/14/nx-s1-5821274/israel-and-lebanon-meet-in-d-c-again-for-peace-talks'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-wti-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI crude front-month futures steadied above $101 per barrel (near $101.5) on Thursday 2026-05-14, consolidating Wednesday''s level with no fresh Iran or OPEC catalyst on the wire. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-05-14-2026/'
  fin.observedValue: 101.5

ev-brent-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent crude front-month futures held near $106-107 per barrel on Thursday 2026-05-14 (TradingEconomics reading $105.87; an early-session reading near $107.82), consolidating Wednesday''s level with no fresh catalyst. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil'
  fin.observedValue: 106.0

ev-gold-spot-4705-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Gold spot (XAU/USD) traded near $4,705 per ounce on Thursday 2026-05-14, holding steady within its recent $4,646-4,761 band on a marginally easier-rates session. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/05/14/gold-price-at-4705-holds-steady-retail-sales-trump-xi-summit-key-this-week/'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.observedValue: 4705.0

ev-spx-thursday-close-7501-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'S&P 500 closed at 7,501.24 on Thursday 2026-05-14, +0.77% - the FIRST close above 7,500 in history. The cash market absorbed an April import-prices print of +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m and still set a fresh all-time record close. Sourced via web research; Massive index-aggregate endpoint returns NOT_AUTHORIZED under the current plan tier.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/stock-market-may-14-2026-sp-futures-rise-after-closing-at-record-high'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 7501.24

ev-spy-thursday-close-74817-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'SPY ETF closed at $748.17 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/prev. Session OHLC: open $743.65, high $749.53, low $743.56, close $748.17, volume 45.3M, VWAP $746.95. Tracks the SPX cash 7,501.24 record close at the standard ~10x divisor.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.spy
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 748.17

ev-vix-thursday-close-1787-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VIX closed at 17.87 on Thursday 2026-05-14, -0.7% on the day. Sits in the 15-20 normal-business range despite the third consecutive hot inflation print (CPI Tue, PPI Wed, imports Thu) - well above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold and well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold. Sourced via web research; Massive index-aggregate endpoint returns NOT_AUTHORIZED under the current plan tier.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-news-may-14-100700535.html'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.vix
  fin.marketMetric: fin.volatility-level
  fin.observedValue: 17.87

ev-nasdaq-record-26635-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) closed at 26,635.22 on Thursday 2026-05-14, +0.88% - a fresh all-time record. Driven by NVDA +4.4% on the H200 export approval to ~10 Chinese firms and Cisco AH +15% on raised FY26 AI orders ($9B from $5B). Sourced via web research; Massive index-aggregate endpoint returns NOT_AUTHORIZED under the current plan tier.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/stock-market-may-14-2026-sp-futures-rise-after-closing-at-record-high'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.ixic
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 26635.22

ev-dji-thursday-close-50063-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,063.46 on Thursday 2026-05-14, +0.75% (+370.26 pts) - back above the 50,000 threshold. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/stock-market-may-14-2026-sp-futures-rise-after-closing-at-record-high'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 50063.46

ev-nvda-thursday-close-23574-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $235.74 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/NVDA/prev, +$9.91 (+4.4%) from Wednesday $225.83. Session OHLC: open $229.85, high $236.54, low $229.30, close $235.74, volume 181.0M, VWAP $234.07. Fresh all-time high on the H200-export-approval Reuters report and into the May 20 Q1 FY2027 print. Extends NVDA monthly rally to ~15%.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/NVDA/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.nvda
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 235.74

ev-amd-thursday-close-44970-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed at $449.70 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/AMD/prev, +$4.20 (+0.94%) from Wednesday $445.50. Session OHLC: open $440.60, high $453.31, low $435.68, close $449.70, volume 26.1M, VWAP $447.38. Held the post-Q1 data-center reset of the AMD narrative on a chip-led tape.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/AMD/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.amd
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 449.70

ev-h200-export-approval-may14:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US Commerce Department on 2026-05-14 cleared NVIDIA H200 AI chip sales to approximately 10 Chinese technology firms - including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, with authorization extended to distributors Lenovo and Foxconn through which Chinese customers may route purchases. Reuters exclusive disclosed during the Trump-Xi Beijing summit Day 1. Resolves the H20 / MI308 / H200 export-control surface that the AI-capex thesis named as the binary China-policy axis on the favorable side. The thesis EventCondition invalidation specifically forbids "durable export controls extended" - this is the headline opposite.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html'
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-14

ev-h200-deals-stalled-may14:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Despite US export approval, H200 deals to the ~10 cleared Chinese firms have NOT YET materialized as of 2026-05-14 - no shipments have arrived. Chinese firms pulled back after Beijing-side guidance; Chinese state media did not echo the H200 readout. US licensing terms additionally require Chinese buyers to prove strict security procedures and not use H200 chips for military purposes; NVIDIA must demonstrate sufficient inventory and route shipments per US export and revenue-sharing requirements. Caps the magnitude of the favorable export-policy resolution.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T18:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2026/05/14/us-clears-alibaba-tencent-to-buy-nvidia-h200-but-no-shipments-yet/'
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-14

ev-h200-75k-chip-cap-may14:
  type: wv.PolicyEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US licensing terms for the May 14 H200 export approvals to ~10 Chinese firms cap individual purchases at 75,000 chips per approved company. Quantifies the magnitude of the favorable headline.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html'
  effectiveDate: 2026-05-14

ev-cisco-q3-blowout-ai-orders-may14:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Cisco (CSCO) reported Q3 FY2026 (May 13 AH) revenue $15.8B, GAAP EPS $0.85, non-GAAP EPS $1.06. Significantly raised guidance: Q4 revenue $16.7B-$16.9B (vs $15.82B consensus), Q4 adj EPS $1.16-$1.18 (vs $1.07). FY26 revenue $62.8B-$63.0B (vs $61.6B consensus), FY26 EPS $4.27-$4.29 from prior $4.13-$4.17. AI infrastructure / hyperscaler orders now $5.3B YTD; raised FY26 AI-orders target to $9B from $5B; FY26 AI revenue raised to $4B from $3B. Stock jumped ~15% AH - largest one-day move in 14+ years - extending the AI-spend confirmation backdrop the AI-capex thesis tracks.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-13T20:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://investor.cisco.com/news/news-details/2026/CISCO-REPORTS-THIRD-QUARTER-EARNINGS/default.aspx'
  fin.reportingPeriod: fin.q3-2026

ev-april-retail-sales-may14:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 advance monthly retail sales released by Census on Thursday 2026-05-14 8:30 AM ET: total retail and food services $757.1B, +0.5% m/m (third consecutive monthly increase) and +4.9% YoY. Core retail sales (ex-autos / gas / building materials / food services) +0.7% m/m - eleventh straight month positive, down from March +1.9% spike. Soft spots: furniture -2%, autos -0.5%, department stores -3.2%, clothing -1.5%; nonstore retailers +11.1% YoY. The print confirms the consumer is absorbing the energy passthrough rather than breaking - load-bearing for the equity-melt-up vs recession-risk thesis recession-risk leg.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 0.5

ev-april-import-prices-may14:
  type: wv.EconomicDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'April 2026 US import prices released by BLS on Thursday 2026-05-14: +1.9% m/m (vs +1.0% consensus, prior +0.9% revised), +4.2% YoY (largest YoY rise since October 2022). Imported fuel +16.3% m/m (largest monthly advance since March 2022) confirms the Iran-war energy passthrough at the import-price layer. Imported food +0.9% m/m. Excluding food and energy +0.7% m/m (vs +0.2% prior) - broader composition than a pure energy passthrough. Imported goods from Canada +5.6% (largest in four years). Third consecutive hot inflation print after Tuesday CPI 3.8% / 2.8% and Wednesday PPI +6.0% / +5.2% YoY.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T12:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://whbl.com/2026/05/14/us-import-prices-surge-in-april-as-fuels-post-biggest-gain-in-four-years/'
  indicatorPeriod: April 2026
  indicatorValue: 4.2

ev-fedwatch-hike-by-dec-36pct-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'CME FedWatch tool as of 2026-05-14 priced approximately 36% probability of a Fed rate HIKE by the December meeting, up from ~16% a week earlier and ~5% a month earlier - independent confirmation of the rate-path repricing across an additional measurement (CME options-implied vs futures-implied). Probability of one 25bp cut by December at 35.7%; second cut probability fell to 9.5% (from 32.5% a month ago). Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.rate-path-expectations
  fin.observedValue: 0.36

ev-10y-yield-thursday-close-446-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: '10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.461% on Thursday 2026-05-14, -0.0200 (-0.45%) from Wednesday 4.49% - eased modestly counter to the third hot inflation print of the week (April import prices +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY). Still near the 10-month high. Sourced via web research; Massive treasury-yields endpoint returned empty for the requested dates (upstream Fed-dataset lag).'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-year-treasury-yield-rises-to-highest-level-in-10-months-on-hotter-than-expected-inflation-data-152901840.html'
  fin.observedValue: 4.461

ev-tlt-thursday-close-8492-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $84.92 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/TLT/prev, +$0.12 (+0.14%) from Wednesday $84.80. Session OHLC: open $85.26, high $85.375, low $84.905, close $84.92, volume 25.2M, VWAP $85.13. Long-duration ticked up modestly as 10Y yield eased 2bp - inside daily noise.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/TLT/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.tlt
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 84.92

ev-lmt-thursday-close-52041-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Lockheed Martin (LMT) closed at $520.41 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/LMT/prev, +$0.47 (+0.09%) from Wednesday $519.94. Session OHLC: open $520.74, high $521.43, low $515.25, close $520.41. Essentially flat on a chip-led record-equity tape - rotation away from defense within daily noise.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/LMT/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.lmt
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 520.41

ev-rtx-thursday-close-17568-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'RTX Corporation (RTX) closed at $175.68 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/RTX/prev, -$2.43 (-1.36%) from Wednesday $178.11. Session OHLC: open $178.11, high $178.90, low $175.30, close $175.68. Modest rotation away on a chip-led record-equity tape.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/RTX/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.rtx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 175.68

ev-noc-thursday-close-54865-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Northrop Grumman (NOC) closed at $548.65 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/NOC/prev, -$3.15 (-0.57%) from Wednesday $551.80. Session OHLC: open $553.54, high $555.97, low $547.285, close $548.65.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/NOC/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.noc
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 548.65

ev-gld-thursday-close-42721-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'GLD ETF closed at $427.21 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/GLD/prev, -$3.29 (-0.76%) from Wednesday $430.50. Session OHLC: open $430.30, high $431.54, low $427.10, close $427.21, volume 4.0M, VWAP $429.18. Second consecutive rate-up session; orderly pullback rather than a structural break.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/GLD/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 427.21

ev-gdx-thursday-close-9395-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed at $93.95 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/GDX/prev, -$2.28 (-2.37%) from Wednesday $96.23. Miners showed characteristic leverage on the down day - inside the orderly-pullback envelope.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/GDX/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gdx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 93.95

ev-gold-spot-4660-thursday-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Gold spot (XAU/USD) traded around $4,621-4,671 (ask/bid) by 7:55 PM ET Thursday 2026-05-14 after a second straight session of declines from the prior $4,705 band - rate-up backdrop and Trump-Xi diplomatic-positive readout cited as drivers. Inside the broader $4,646-4,761 recent band; structural-bull supports unaffected. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T23:55:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.gld
  fin.observedValue: 4660.0

ev-xle-thursday-close-5807-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) closed at $58.07 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/XLE/prev, +$0.44 (+0.76%) from Wednesday $57.63. Energy sector held the bid as crude consolidated near $101 WTI / $105 Brent.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/XLE/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.xle
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 58.07

ev-xom-thursday-close-15278-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $152.78 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/XOM/prev, +$1.21 (+0.80%) from Wednesday $151.57. Held the energy-sector repricing alongside the XLE sector ETF.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/XOM/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.xom
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 152.78

ev-cvx-thursday-close-18664-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Chevron (CVX) closed at $186.64 on Thursday 2026-05-14 - verified via Massive /v2/aggs/ticker/CVX/prev. Session OHLC: open $186.19, high $187.57, low $185.25, close $186.64. Energy majors held the premium alongside XOM and XLE.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://api.massive.com/v2/aggs/ticker/CVX/prev'
  fin.aboutSecurity: sec.cvx
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 186.64

ev-wti-thursday-settle-10117-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'WTI June futures settled $101.17 on Thursday 2026-05-14, +9 cents on the day - essentially flat consolidation despite the Trump-Xi joint Hormuz "must remain open" statement and Bessent "China to work behind the scenes" mediation framing. Markets did NOT price a near-term break. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-xi-meeting.html'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 101.17

ev-brent-thursday-settle-10572-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Brent July futures settled $105.72 on Thursday 2026-05-14, +9 cents on the day - mirrors WTI flat consolidation. Goldman $77.50 target now ~26% below settle. Sourced via web research.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T20:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-xi-meeting.html'
  fin.marketMetric: fin.close-price
  fin.observedValue: 105.72

ev-trump-xi-hormuz-must-remain-open-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'A White House readout on 2026-05-14 said President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed at the Beijing summit that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open to support the free flow of energy." Per the readout, Xi made clear China opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use. Chinese state media DID NOT include the Hormuz line in its readout - so the diplomatic alignment is asymmetric. The first US-China public alignment on Hormuz reopening since the war began; a partial step toward the SequencedCondition first leg of the persistent-energy-shock thesis invalidation, though oil settled flat indicating markets weight it as marginal not load-bearing.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-xi-iran-war-strait-hormuz-lebanon-israel-peace-talks/'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-trump-xi-iran-no-nukes-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'White House readout of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit on 2026-05-14 said both leaders agreed that "the emergence of nuclear weapons in Iran is unacceptable." Aligns the two largest powers publicly on the nuclear-non-acquisition outcome that the broader US-Iran negotiating posture demands. Does not by itself bring durable peace closer (Iran has not agreed to anything; the May 10 sovereignty demand is intact); meaningful as a marginal step on the Iran-resolution diplomatic track.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/hormuz-should-remain-open-iran-can-never-have-nuclear-weapon-key-takeaways-from-trump-xi-summit-2026-05-14-1041156'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-xi-iran-mediation-offer-may14:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Chinese President Xi Jinping on 2026-05-14 offered to help broker an end to the US-Iran war and keep the Strait of Hormuz open to global shipping. Trump told reporters that Xi assured him China would not provide military equipment to Iran. The mediator-offer is a new structural channel the prior Pakistan-mediated track lacked - China has ongoing commercial relationships with Iran and meaningful leverage that Pakistan does not. Caveat: Iran has not asked for nor accepted Chinese mediation.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://time.com/article/2026/05/14/trump-xi-china-iran-strait-hormuz/'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-14

ev-xi-no-military-eq-iran-may14:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump on 2026-05-14, recounting his Beijing summit conversation with Xi, said Xi pledged that China will not provide Iran with military equipment ("He said he is not going to give military equipment"). Caps Iran near-term replenishment options on the Chinese-supplied side and aligns China with the US position on Iranian rearmament limits.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:30:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://time.com/article/2026/05/14/trump-xi-china-iran-strait-hormuz/'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-14

ev-xi-china-buy-us-oil-may14:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'At the Trump-Xi summit on 2026-05-14, Xi expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China dependence on the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Demand-side commercial alignment that, combined with the Hormuz-open commitment, gives China direct interest in the SequencedCondition durable-reopening leg of the persistent-energy-shock thesis.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T13:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-xi-meeting.html'
  speakerRole: wv.head-of-state
  statementDate: 2026-05-14

ev-bessent-china-hormuz-mediation-may14:
  type: wv.OfficialStatementEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on 2026-05-14 that China will use its influence on Iran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and "will be working behind the scenes to the extent anyone has any say over the Iranian leadership." Operationalizes the Trump-Xi joint Hormuz-open commitment into a near-term mediation pathway.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/china-xi-trump-iran-war-oil-strait-hormuz-bessent.html'
  statementDate: 2026-05-14

ev-trump-xi-strategic-stability-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump and Xi agreed at the Beijing summit on 2026-05-14 to develop a "constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability," with Beijing treating this framing as the guiding principle for the next three years and beyond. Reduces the structural decoupling risk that the AI-capex thesis China-decoupling-tail leg priced in - though specific tariff / rare-earths / AI-export deals were NOT announced, the overall strategic framework moved away from confrontation.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/trump-xi-summit-beijing-takeaway-taiwan-trade-iran-war-strategic-relations-.html'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14

ev-trump-200-boeing-deal-may14:
  type: fin.CorporateEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'Trump said on 2026-05-14 at the Beijing summit that Xi had agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets - one of the few specific commercial outcomes from Day 1. Confirms the Trump-Xi commercial-engagement framework even as larger tariff / rare-earths / AI deals were not announced.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/14/trump-xi-jinping-china-summit-taiwan-iran-trade-beef/'

ev-cumulative-supply-loss-1b-bbl-may14:
  type: fin.MarketDataEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'As of 2026-05-14, mounting Hormuz supply losses are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace - more than 14 million barrels per day of supply cut since the war began, with cumulative loss from Gulf producers now over 1 billion barrels. Quantifies the structural-impairment magnitude that frames the persistent-energy-shock thesis backdrop.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T15:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-moderate
  citation: 'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-xi-meeting.html'
  fin.observedValue: 1.0

ev-lebanon-israel-day1-productive-may14:
  type: wv.GeopoliticalEvidence
  evidenceStatement: 'The third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks Day 1 in Washington on 2026-05-14 was characterized by US delegates as "productive," but with large gaps remaining: Israeli officials focused on Hezbollah disarmament + a precursor to normalization of diplomatic relations; Lebanese officials sought a security agreement / armistice short of normalization. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam framed Lebanon principles as ceasefire reinforcement + Israeli withdrawal timetable + Lebanese detainee release. Lebanon represented by Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad and special envoy Simon Karam; Israel by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and deputy national security adviser Yossi Draznin; US delegates included Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and US envoy to Lebanon Michel Issa. Continues May 15.'
  evidenceObservedAt: 2026-05-14T22:00:00Z
  evidenceStrength: wv.evidence-strong
  citation: 'https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-may-15-2026/'
  geopoliticalEventDate: 2026-05-14